Cleveland Cavaliers Blog

 The Los Angeles Lakers are the oldest team in the league, and have a defense oriented head coach so naturally they are taking all that veteran savvy and running at the fastest pace in the league. Who is going to suit up tonight for the Lakers?  Ariza, THT and Nunn are out, Lebron, Ellington and Rondo are questionable and Davis is probable.  At 2-3 with a 3 point win against Memphis while shooting >50% from 3 and an overtime win against the Spurs they have been vulnerable in every game they have played so far this season.  That could change for any game if they get their act together. 1.  Issues the Lakers are having:  Lebron's mobility on defense.  He has rested his ankle and is probably going to play tonight but if we took his 5 game stats his defensive on/off are the worst in his 4 years with LA and 2nd worst in his last 8, and this is for a team who doesn't have quality defensive backups to make his on/off look worse.   2.  Reboun...

 We won one last Saturday, we won one on Monday, and a win last night- that is what we call a winning streak. Dialogue of the night: Collin:  Excuse me, Mr Batum? Nic:  Yes, young man? Collin:  Do you like Yams? Nic:  Excuse me? Collin:  I said do you like Yams, sir? Nic:  Yes, I quite enjoy a good Yam. Collin:   Nic:   That Sir, is the biggest Yam I have ever seen. Thoughts:   1.  Another coaching win.  After 3 years of slop its funny to be reminded that 5 NBA caliber guys on the floor playing hard together generates wins.  While others will complain about precise rotations and closing units and whatever the coaching staff deserves credit for getting buy in everywhere, and getting effort from everyone.  Ku to the dos. 2.  Their fatigue is showing up in the missed 3 balls, but not effort.  That is good.  Hopefully a day off without travel gets those jumpers to go down. 3.  Kevin Love...

  At some point on this road trip I expect the Cavs to lay an egg and just lose a game due to fatigue.  As I have no idea when that will happen I will just proceed as if it won’t happen for the particular game I am discussing. LAC:  At 1-2 with two close losses against solid teams and one blowout win in a clear outlier game (30 turnovers for Portland), plus a series of hard to value injuries you can’t really gauge what they will look like game to game.  Coming into this game they have 3 rotation pieces out in Kawhi, Morris and Ibaka plus a pair of rookies with injuries taking up roster spots, leaving them pretty thin.  They have done a good job adding depth, and their 3rd center is doing Hartenstein things- ie looking great when he isn’t fouling or turning the ball over which he does a lot, and has been getting actual playing time in the first half (first quarter even) and having an impact.   I don’t know why I am starting with Hart… OK I do, I love th...

  A win for Bickerstaff!  This one was a coaching win, the Cavs on short rest and more travel went into the largest home court advantage in the league and out worked and out hustled a playoff team.  Lots of teams talk about being in better shape than their opponents during the offseason, the Cavs looked it.  Jarrett Allen especially had a high effort night and was still running the floor late in the 4th.  Player of the game- The aforementioned Jarrett Allen.  You are going to be the primary defender on the reigning MVP and also post 21/16/2 with zero turnovers and 1 foul on 91% TS? Yeah, thanks for keeping us in the game JA (also thanks Denver’s missed 3 pointers).   Notes:  Markkanen continues to look a ton better (except for not yet hitting his shots) as a 3 than a 4.  His steal rate is up, his assists up, his TO rate near zero, and while his rebounding rate is down it is down to a solid level for a SF instead of being a point of weakn...

  An awkward game to preview.  For the Cavs it is 3 games in 4 nights and the 4th in 6 with their starting PG as questionable, while Denver has enjoyed a few nights off without travel and has their starting PG on injured reserve.  These games semi-regularly end up complete blowouts for the tired team, though it is still early in the season and the Cavs have young legs on their side, so going forward we will pretend that they are going to be able to play with energy and focus while acknowledging that schedule losses do exist and this could be one of them. The matchup:  The good news for Cleveland is that the Nuggets are missing Jamal Murray, as so far they have been torched by Ja Morant, and given up solid games to Lemelo and Trae Young.  All they have to do is contain the reigning MVP and the game should be in the bag… right? Denver has started off the season focusing on shoring up their defense, after developing a high level offense that thrived even without Mu...

  Looking back on the two weekend games: Coaching issues fall into two categories, first are figuring out how to get the team together- scheme, buy in etc.  In the first two losses the Cavs had rebounding problems despite their size due to giving up penetration, making mistakes on rotations and occasionally being lazy when the ball was near or in their hands.  These things need to be resolved over time.  The other issue is just dump play calling, and that needs to stop straight away.  Against the Hornets the Cavs opened up the game with Allen handling the ball on the perimeter, which led to a TO and a layup.  Then early in the 4th coming out of a timeout the Cavs had Allen handling on the perimeter which led to a turnover and a dunk.  These are play calls out of stoppages, not middle of the game slog where the team sort of freezes up and only one guy is going out and getting the ball.  These play calls are also inexplicably bad, Allen is the worst...

  Game 2:  Hey we now have the smallest amount of official data for a game preview, lets go nuts! In game 1 the Cavs went big with three players listed at 6’11 or more in their starting lineup while the Hornets only have one such starter, one such player in the full lineup, and only two players even on the roster with one being rookie Kai Jones, however that doesn’t mean that the Hornets played small, instead they went medium, with their shortest starter listed at 6’5 and only one rotation player below that.  That will change to two rotation players and one starter listed under 6’5 if Rozier is good to go off his ankle injury. Indiana’s undersized front court allowed Donatas Sabonis to put up a 33/15/2 game on 21 TS attempts, albeit with 6 TOs, but their perimeter oriented second big Turner only got off 6 FGAs, and had a 9/7/1 with 4 blocks and 4 TOs line.  A straightforward interpretation of this is that Charlotte’s wing-heavy lineup had issues keeping a paint orien...

  Disclaimer:  My routine for most games is watch the first two quarters, then walk the dog during half time, so I typically miss about half of the 3rd quarter.   The two risks I listed in the game preview?  Ja Morant getting to the hoop and offensive rebounding.  Play 1, Ja gets to the hoop for an easy layup, play 2 Steve Adams grabs an offensive rebound off a miss.  Le sigh. Offense:  Let’s ignore the ortg for a min, no wait it was 120 let’s focus on the ortg!   First off the Cavs did not suffer from a ridiculous amount of turnovers like they did in preseason, 10 TOs and a 9% TO rate is much, much better.  They managed to get good looks at the hoop- 38 3s against 15 2s out of the paint, and 40 shots inside the paint along with 18 FTAs.  This offensive production was fluky from a shot making perspective, hitting sub 37% from 3 with a good distribution of attempts- it wasn’t Okroro heaving 9 attempts or Mobley or Stevens. ...

  Memphis is really difficult to project this year.  Jonas was very good for them last season, his traditional stats were great, but he was also a high impact +/- player for them.  They went from +3.7 to -2.8 with him on then off, and this wasn’t all Ja, as without Jonas we still saw Morant led lineups as a small negative (-0.7), but Steven Adams isn’t exactly chopped liver at the center position and they should/could be healthier with JJJ getting more time.   Which brings us to their youth- they are young so they should get better there, but they got younger in the offseason.  They added Zaire and Culver (whose 22/23 team option was declined), who knows how much they see in Culver but they paid a hefty price to move up and take Zaire.   Interestingly, despite having Ja’s eye popping play at point and Jonas’ 17 ppg on 64% TS at C they were average (#15) offensively and hung their hat on defense (#6) to squeeze into the playoffs by beating the Spur...

  My defensive preview goes like this:  who the hell knows what will happen?  There, can I be done?  No?  Why not, it’s my frickin’ blog and I don’t wanna do it, I had a root canal this morning and I just don’t wanna.   Fine.   Did you know Kevin Love graded out as neutral defensively over the past two seasons by Lebron?  Ok, neutral isn’t good for big, but when your reputation is as an atrocious defender you shouldn’t be positive 6 out of the last 7 years.  Allen’s been a positive for all 4 seasons and a solid one for 2 of the past three with this last year regressing to +0.79.  Markkanen a small negative over the past two years (~-0.3).  Mobely is a rookie.   Where do we take this group?  Ideally Allen/Markkanen/Mobley is very switchy for their size.  Markkanen is a terrible rebounder at the 5, poor at the 4 and fine at the 3.  Allen is Ok at the 5, and Mobley looks to be solid for a 4. Love exce...

  What do the Cavs look like on offense if healthy? Offensive changes:  The Cavs were dead last in PPG last season at 9.5 behind the #15 team (Grizzlies) and 16.2 behind the #1 team (Bucks), due to their combination of terrible efficiency (28th) and sluggish pace (25th).  How should things shift this year?  Front court scoring:  This is going to be the major difference from last season.  I think basically everyone is aware that Lauri Markkanen had his worst season in terms of ppg, but this was due to his collapsing mins, not declining productivity.  He actually had his 2nd best PP36 at 19.0 (smack on his career average) and his career low is 17.8.  Kevin Love missed most of the season, and after he returned he had his 2nd worst pp36 average- ahead only of his rookie year and tied with his sophomore- of his career.  However that 17.7 pp36 would be a career best for Nance, Prince or Wade who combined for 3,000 mins last season, and between them...

 So now what Bickerstaff?  Are we playing to win or to develop?  There is no getting around it, the starting lineup of Garland/Sexton/Okoro/Mobley/Allen struggled in preseason while lineups with Markkanen at the 3 did well.  By my count, and I might have missed some since I am just scrolling play by play, the starting 5 were -12 over 3 games, while lineups with Markkanen plus 2 of Love, Mobley and Allen were +10.  Small sample sizes but we only have small samples to go off for now, and everything points to LM at the 3* being superior to the other iterations they tried.   So now we are at fork, not a hard fork because lineups can always be shifted, but are the Cavs going to attempt to force their 4 top 8 picks into starting together or are they taking the path that looks far more likely to lead to near term (not necessarily short terms as LM is 24) wins.  Perhaps an injury settles the question, but if not we get a firm look at if the Cavs really me...

  How well you finish obviously depends on how good your team is relative to the competition, so let’s do a quick rundown of the East:  Milwaukee:  Defending Champs returning almost everyone and added some minor pieces.  Their only real risks are Giannis’ knee soreness after a long playoff run and Jrue+Middleton playing in the olympics after a long playoff run.  Penciled in for a top 2 finish. Brooklyn:  Even with Kyrie’s current unavailability they are in good shape.  Durant and Harden both missed time last year but they really only need 1 fully healthy guy with solid rotation pieces to make the playoffs.  Another top two spot, but the eraser is ready if one guys comes up lame off a drive to the hoop. Philadelphia:  Where the East starts getting shaky, the first step in the Simmons resolution has occurred with him reporting to camp and talking with upper management.  Still unhappy players don’t translate to wins (see Harden’s final game...

  Three Things I Like:  Evan Mobley’s learning curve is a flat circle.  I don’t know what that means, but he looked like a 3 year offensive project in the summer league and even game 1 of preseason and now he looks polished at times.  He also has shifted from getting pushed around to holding his own physically and actually bullying guys.  Some of that is the 11 lbs he claims to have put on, but a lot of that is body positioning and leverage.  He’s looking like the best player in the draft, and has ‘best player out of the past two drafts’ potential by the end of this year. Lauri Markkanen’s D.  It’s not elite, or particularly good, but its a mile better than his reputation.  The bad is obvious at times, he was battling Vuce under the glass last night and was being held off with one arm while fouling, and Vuce got the rebound, putback and 1.  However he has good feet on the perimeter, he doesn’t chase blocks and he plays with effort. ...

  With a little over 7 mins remaining in the 2nd quarter last night Okoro swung the ball from the corner to Windler for a lightly contested 28’ 3pt attempt which snapped the bottom of the net.  This 3 was as close to a signifier of the end of a player’s meaningful tenure with a team as you can get in game.   The entire sequence actually started at the 7:48 mark in the first quarter when the soon to be down 15-7 Cavs broke up their starting lineup and brought three players into the game, Love, Markkanen and Rubio.  The notable portion of this move was that the two bigs and a guard replaced a guard, wing and a big, denoting the beginning of their experimentation with Lauri at the 3 in an intentional lineup.  Now Markkannen played a handful of mins at the 3 last season with the Bulls and it went extremely well in terms of raw plus minus but this is a different team and that was a small sample size.  Well 2:42 of game time is also a tiny sample size, but i...