Game 1 Preview: Cavs vs Grizzlies

 Memphis is really difficult to project this year.  Jonas was very good for them last season, his traditional stats were great, but he was also a high impact +/- player for them.  They went from +3.7 to -2.8 with him on then off, and this wasn’t all Ja, as without Jonas we still saw Morant led lineups as a small negative (-0.7), but Steven Adams isn’t exactly chopped liver at the center position and they should/could be healthier with JJJ getting more time.  

Which brings us to their youth- they are young so they should get better there, but they got younger in the offseason.  They added Zaire and Culver (whose 22/23 team option was declined), who knows how much they see in Culver but they paid a hefty price to move up and take Zaire.  

Interestingly, despite having Ja’s eye popping play at point and Jonas’ 17 ppg on 64% TS at C they were average (#15) offensively and hung their hat on defense (#6) to squeeze into the playoffs by beating the Spurs and Warriors (in OT!)  to barely make the play-in spot.  

Adams ought to add more defensively than Jonas did, but JJJ coming in at PF is likely going to mitigate some, and maybe all of that.  In their limited time together Morant plus JJJ had an ortg of 115.1, but were -6.9 as they couldn’t stop my grandmother from snaking in for an offensive rebound (3rd percentile dreb percentage).  

Dillon Brooks is also out for this game and he came in #4 in LEBRON wins added last year, with Jonas at #2, half because he was a very solid defender and half because he was 2nd in total mins played last season.  If they are putting JJJ/Adams in the starting lineup then that bumps Kyle Anderson- #1 in LEBRON wins added last year- either to SF where he was -2.2 for the season vs +2.5 at PF or the bench.  

All in all I would say that Memphis looks a little, to quite a bit, worse this year going into the year but I could look like a complete asshole for saying that if Ja or JJJ makes a leap.  

Matchups:

I can’t fucking do the matchups if I don’t know the starting lineups!!!!

If the Cavs start Lauri at the 3 and Memphis goes with SloMo then I like this very much for the Cavs.  JJJ is exploitable, even if he improved defensively in the offseason, and the Cavs should be able to attack him on every possession while getting everyone involved.  SloMo isn’t going to be at his best tailing Lauri coming hard off curls for open looks and he also isn’t going to punish Lauri’s weaknesses defensively.  The Cavs might have issues keeping Adams off the offensive glass, but either Lauri or Mobley can at least contest JJJ on the perimeter, and Adams should be punishing them consistently.

In particular the Mobley to Markkanen high post PnR lob could be repeated with these lineups, and transition points with Mobley/Allen/Lauri running the floor vs Adams and a guy whose nickname is SloMo should be a large advantage. 

Where the Cavs will have issues is in dealing with the size of Ja and Bane at the guard position which is going to be the case against a lot of teams.  Neither has shown a tendency to slip in for offensive rebounds yet, which is one risk if Allen needs help keeping Adams from easy put backs and with small guards.  Adams really likes flattening opposing guards on his screens, which is another issue the Cavs backcourt routinely struggles with.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ja get into the teens with assists tonight as they screen off the Cavs guards and either a switch or help is forced leading to open looks. 

The bench though really should be a strong suit for the Cavs as long as their top 7-8 guys are healthy.  It is disappointing to have Winder out to start the season, and Wade doubtful as well, but Rubio and Love will exploit Zaire’s inexperience if he is out there with the 2nd unit and Tyus Jones isn’t a threat to drop 20 (oh jeez I just jinxed us didn’t I?).

I like this matchup for Cleveland… unless Morant has figured it out from 3 or at the hoop because he has been top tier at getting to the rim but only average finishing there so far in his career.