2021-22 Offensive preview

 What do the Cavs look like on offense if healthy?


Offensive changes:  The Cavs were dead last in PPG last season at 9.5 behind the #15 team (Grizzlies) and 16.2 behind the #1 team (Bucks), due to their combination of terrible efficiency (28th) and sluggish pace (25th).  How should things shift this year?


  1.  Front court scoring:  This is going to be the major difference from last season.  I think basically everyone is aware that Lauri Markkanen had his worst season in terms of ppg, but this was due to his collapsing mins, not declining productivity.  He actually had his 2nd best PP36 at 19.0 (smack on his career average) and his career low is 17.8.  Kevin Love missed most of the season, and after he returned he had his 2nd worst pp36 average- ahead only of his rookie year and tied with his sophomore- of his career.  However that 17.7 pp36 would be a career best for Nance, Prince or Wade who combined for 3,000 mins last season, and between them averaged ~12 pp36.  Drummond and Mcgee, who basically filled in the rest of the (non Allen, who returns in a similar role) FC mins, produced around 21 pp36, but only in 1200 total mins.  The Cavs should be getting over 3,000 mins between these two players whose primary skill is scoring from the front court, 


  1.  The wing:  I haven’t gone through every team, but the Cavs likely had the worst offensive production from a starting SF in the league.  Even tanking teams like Houston got more ppg and pp36, and TS marks from guys like Jae’Sean Tate than Okoro provided, and Okoro led the team in total mins played.  From this low of a level there really is only one direction to go, even if his volume stays low his efficiency should be better, and the relative importance of his scoring should be lower. 

 

  1. Back up guard.  Rubio isn’t known as a scorer, but much like Okoro’s production the Cavs backup guard situation was among the worst, if not the worst, in the league.  The Dotson/Delly/Thomas etc, etc, emergency rotation combined for 1,800+ mins while being worse than Rubio’s average scoring season per 36, and much worse passing wise.  

 

  1.  Pace.  A point of emphasis that the Cavs have actually demonstrated a commitment to through their preseason games.  Getting up to the average pace last year would increase their possessions by ~2.5%.  


Some of the pessimism around the Cavs (I took the over 27.5 wins) this year stems from the image that they are largely the same team as last season.  Roster wise this is semi true, only Markkanen, Mobley and Rubio are new additions for the expected top of the rotation.  If we look at displacement though we can look at Mobley replacing Nance’s mins, Markkanen and Love (better health) displacing Prince, McGee, Wade and the lower end injury mins, and Rubio displacing a lot of low end guard play.  Just these upgrades alone should push the Cavs up 3-4 spots offensively without considering fit and growth.  

Offensive fit and growth:


  1.  We have already seen examples of large swings in productivity in the preseason.  The first game saw them score 5 points in the first 7 mins, and then 22 in the next 5 mins with at least 2 of Love/Markkanen/Osman on the floor with Rubio.  This is an exaggerated example of what we saw all preseason, having one of Love/Markkanen out there tended to improve outcomes, and having both or one plus another shooter really did wonders.  

  2. Rubio is a natural fit for spacing.  HIs peak assist seasons (per 100) came with KAT and Lavine around him, and he finished 4th and 5th in assists per 100 playing next to those two, and he finished 2nd in the one season he and some guy named Kevin Love managed to both stay healthy.  Love and Rubio coming off the bench together is a ridiculously strong pairing offensively.  I can’t remember another time that two guys who (again if healthy) ought to be starters, and play well together were coming off the same bench.  

  3. Issac Okoro will be less bad than last season.  The expectation of growth for young guys with solid work ethics is just there, and his very low level of productivity is likely to rise.  This could be minor or major but it is almost certainly an upward arrow.

  4. This brings us to the young guards.  Neither has looked great in preseason, but both have shown progress not just between seasons but within seasons thus far in their careers.  The expectation should be more of this, especially with the far better surrounding talent that they go into the season with.  We might see a dip in scoring totals from Sexton (though we may not with the faster pace, and more open lanes) but higher efficiency and more assists.



Upside:


High end upside relies on one single question, what if instead of being a 4 who can play a little 5 or 3, we have actually signed a SF  in Lauri Markkanen who can also play the 4?  I think the preseason has definitively answered the question of ‘Can Lauri play some 3 effectively on this team?’ with a yes, and now it becomes ‘how much 3 can he play?’.  5-8 mins?  10-15? 20+?  At 20+ this team’s ceiling shifts hard as most opponents have continually gone small.  We got a taste of this in the 2nd preseason game against Chicago where Markkanen, Mobley and Allen combined for 45 points, 7 assists and 2 TOs on 35 TS attempts.  Chicago is a team that has embraced the small ball ethos, as they had 4 of their top 5, in minutes that game guards and only 1 true center got time, and the Cavs bigs were consistently able to get easy buckets on mismatches.  With LM at the 3 for Okoro that starting lineup has all the skill based tools to be a top offense (though lacking in the peak level scorer that drives a lot of top offenses).  Shooting, rim attacking, transition scoring, roll men, passing from multiple spots, screening- and without losing anyone of those without boosting another when most of their bench subs in.  In that world the Cavs could get into the #6-#8 range offensively.


Projected outcome:


14th-18th range:  LM being a starting caliber 3 isn’t a lock, and even if it did happen it would likely take multiple weeks or months into the season to become a reality.  The more likely outcome is that LM plays 75-90% of his time at the 4, with the Cavs trying to balance offensive/defensive lineups and keeping a commitment to playing their young 5 together at least sometimes.  In these lineups the primary missing ingredient will be mismatches each time down the floor leading to more stagnant offensive sets where there is no obvious right approach followed by a guard trying to generate offense on their own without that benefit.  

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