Game 4 vs Nuggets preview

 An awkward game to preview.  For the Cavs it is 3 games in 4 nights and the 4th in 6 with their starting PG as questionable, while Denver has enjoyed a few nights off without travel and has their starting PG on injured reserve.  These games semi-regularly end up complete blowouts for the tired team, though it is still early in the season and the Cavs have young legs on their side, so going forward we will pretend that they are going to be able to play with energy and focus while acknowledging that schedule losses do exist and this could be one of them.


The matchup:  The good news for Cleveland is that the Nuggets are missing Jamal Murray, as so far they have been torched by Ja Morant, and given up solid games to Lemelo and Trae Young.  All they have to do is contain the reigning MVP and the game should be in the bag… right?


Denver has started off the season focusing on shoring up their defense, after developing a high level offense that thrived even without Murray and an average D they got absolutely dumpstered by the Suns (124 ortg in the series vs Denvers 107) in a sweep with CP3 and Booker combining to average 50/13/15 on terrific efficiency.  Hot shooting made the gap starker than it really was but the Suns earned a lot of open shots and were outclassing the Nuggets the whole series.  


Through 2 games Denver has put up average offensive production which is surprising given that they are #2 overall in eFG%, however they have slopped up 40 TOs in those two games while taking only 17 FTAs TOTAL.  Comparing the 4 factors so far to last season we get 


eFG% last year #6 vs #2 this year, ORB% last year #2 this year #28, TO% last year #13 this year #30, FT/FGA last year #28 this year #30.  


Clearly the Nuggets are capable of forcing far more defensive rebounds, and throwing the ball away fewer times than they have done so far this season, and the Cavs primary defensive issue has been defensive rebounding to date.  That could get ugly in a hurry if the Cavs don’t have their legs under them.  


Defensively the Nuggets have good size, the Cavs Jumbo starting lineup doesn’t have a large advantage over Jokic/Porter/Gordon, while Barton is large for a SG.  


How should the Cavs defend Jokic and the Nuggets?  That is a difficult one as Jokic does his work from anywhere.  Against a Suns team running out 2 guards and 2 wings with either Ayton or McGee for most of the game he did most of his work inside especially after motion pulled the center off him and he could abuse the mid sized PFs.  Then against the Spurs he simply ran point a lot of the time (including bringing the ball up from out of bounds a few times) at the top of the arc which completely opened up the paint for cutters and his excellent passing.  


One option is to keep Allen off Jokic as much as you can while Jokic is working the perimeter.  Having him back to get into the lane to help if they run action to force switches and roll Jokic closer to the hoop.  Crucially we need our bigs that are not on Jokic boxing out their guards and wings when shots do go up from outside the paint.  You are going to have to let Aaron Gordon, Will Barton and Jeff Green take open 3s to contest shots near the rim and prevent offensive rebounds.  I would play a zone with Mobely at the apex a large amount tonight if Jokic attempts to run point frequently, and I am pulling help off non MPJ shooters aggressively as soon as action indicates Jokic is going to try to work inside.  This opens up all kinds of issues but that is life dealing with an MVP.


Offensively getting Jokic out of the paint exposes Denver’s lack of shot blocking or rebounding around him.  Baseline cuts from the corners while running screens on the perimeter is your base package, and any time you get Jokic on Markkanen or Love the Cavs should be running the pick n pop with offensive rebound opportunities for the other big(s) on the floor.  Love, especially with 3 big lineups, should be able to muscle Porter or Gordon out of the way for position if Jokic is out on the perimeter.  


All in all it is not a game I am looking forward to in particular tonight, a really tough road game with no rest to prepare for a pretty unique opponent.  

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