Clippers preview

 At some point on this road trip I expect the Cavs to lay an egg and just lose a game due to fatigue.  As I have no idea when that will happen I will just proceed as if it won’t happen for the particular game I am discussing.

LAC:  At 1-2 with two close losses against solid teams and one blowout win in a clear outlier game (30 turnovers for Portland), plus a series of hard to value injuries you can’t really gauge what they will look like game to game.  Coming into this game they have 3 rotation pieces out in Kawhi, Morris and Ibaka plus a pair of rookies with injuries taking up roster spots, leaving them pretty thin.  They have done a good job adding depth, and their 3rd center is doing Hartenstein things- ie looking great when he isn’t fouling or turning the ball over which he does a lot, and has been getting actual playing time in the first half (first quarter even) and having an impact.  

I don’t know why I am starting with Hart… OK I do, I love the guy and am rooting for him to make a small dent in the NBA, but also because of the way LAC has played so far.

Through 3 games the Clippers have 95 total mins from listed centers so they are going centerless (5 out whatever) an average of 16 mpg.  However, that has decreased each game so far with 31 centerless mins in game 1, 14 in game two and basically zero outside of garbage time in game 3.  Given that their preferred small ball C is also missing the game I expect the Clippers to approach 48 mins with a big on the floor.  

Offensive strategy:  Attack Reggie Jackson.  With 3 capable guards they ought to be able to avoid a rejuvenated Eric Bledsoe (6 steals and 3 blocks in 85 mins so far, plus 14 total rebounds and return to his prior level in FTr and general brickwalledness as a physical specimen), and Justice Winslow (3 steals, 2 blocks in 35 mins).  Reggie and Kennard off the bench are the two clear weak points in this defense and Zubac wants to stand as close to the paint as he can on as many possessions as he can.  I want to see a combination of off ball movement forcing Reggie (and Luke) to switch onto Lauri or Mobley, the baseline cuts from Sexton when Jackson’s eyes lock onto the ball, and high pick and rolls with Allen giving open threes to Garland/Sexton if Zubac tries to hang back a step out of the paint.  Following a solid offensive rebounding game against Denver, another team running a C and then a series of wings instead of a PF, I want to see Allen, Mobley, Love and Markkanen sticking their noses in that portion of the game again.

Defensively Paul George is the obvious primary threat, but Beldsoe is the secondary.  PG13 is functionally their PF in most lineups and Markkanen and Mobley the primary defenders.  I’d prefer Lauri because I am happy to let George shoot over the top of him consistently as long as the Cavs have a pair of bigs back boxing out.  The Cavs can with with George gettin 35 on a high volume of jumpers, but not if their whole team gets going from outside.  The Clippers are taking ~40 3s a game so far, the Cavs need to contain those long rebounds and help their smaller guards with Bledsoe/Jacskson and their wings.