The Proverbial Fork in the Road

 So now what Bickerstaff?  Are we playing to win or to develop?  There is no getting around it, the starting lineup of Garland/Sexton/Okoro/Mobley/Allen struggled in preseason while lineups with Markkanen at the 3 did well.  By my count, and I might have missed some since I am just scrolling play by play, the starting 5 were -12 over 3 games, while lineups with Markkanen plus 2 of Love, Mobley and Allen were +10.  Small sample sizes but we only have small samples to go off for now, and everything points to LM at the 3* being superior to the other iterations they tried.  

So now we are at fork, not a hard fork because lineups can always be shifted, but are the Cavs going to attempt to force their 4 top 8 picks into starting together or are they taking the path that looks far more likely to lead to near term (not necessarily short terms as LM is 24) wins.  Perhaps an injury settles the question, but if not we get a firm look at if the Cavs really mean what they say about wanting to take a step forward in terms of wins.

What should they do?  I'm glad you asked, there are a handful of options

1.  Start SexLand/Okoro/Mobley/Allen.  They should not do this, even if in the long term it would work out.  There are two main issues, the first is that this group has 10 years of combined experience in the league and that is something which will resolve itself without them playing as a group.  You could try it again next year and the extra season of growth for each of them could improve outcomes without having to slog through a chunk of the season this way.  The other issue is offensive fit.  Defensively it looked fine but this lineup puts a huge burden on SexLand, and Mobley and Okoro shooting better only partially would fix that.  They need more opportunities created by the other 3 to make the game easier on them, Okoro hitting 40% from corner 3s would help a bunch but that still has the limitation of simplistic offenses due to the overall lack of experience.

2.  Start a different lineup but play the young guys together at different points in the game.  I don't see why you take this approach either except in highly specific circumstances.  Until injuries or a trade limit the roster the Cavs have 3 capable shooters at the PF in Love, Markkanen and Wade who deserve minutes this season and the defense has been acceptable with one or two out there.

3.  Bench Sexton, move Okoro to the 2, start LM.  This is acceptable basketball-wise but I don't like it team management-wise, Sexton has done more than Okoro to earn a starting spot so far and its potentially a negative for their other players to see Sexton's role diminish in his contract season.  Then there is the fact that they have (barring a last minute extension) a decision to make on Sexton in particular and the SexLand backcourt as well, and more data is better than less.

4.  Bench Allen/Mobley.  Doesn't do you much good, and doesn't allow you to maximize their strongest position, PF.

5. Which brings us to benching Okoro as the best option for starting the season. This isn't without its flaws, the major one being that bringing Rubio and Okoro off the bench together causes some spacing issues but you can have those two out there with two of Love/Wade/Markkanen and resolve that pretty easily.  Having Okoro and Love spending time together should give Okoro the space + surrounding IQ to develop his offensive game, and if the Cavs want him to improve that on ball game as they have claimed then getting him away from SexLand is the best way to get him those opportunities, and certainly SexLand + Mobley as they have worked early touches in for Evan as well.

Extra thought:

Up yours Cedi, I go ahead and say goodbye and then you put up 25/6/3 on 17 FGAs in 40 mins of play?    I have been on the Cedi preseason hype train for the past 4 training camps, don't break my heart again Cedi.  I can't take it.  Let me go!

*The difference between the game 1 blow out vs Chicago where LM didn't play the 3 and the game 4 1 pt loss where SexLand was out and LM started at the 3 is quite interesting.

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