Lakers preview

 The Los Angeles Lakers are the oldest team in the league, and have a defense oriented head coach so naturally they are taking all that veteran savvy and running at the fastest pace in the league.

Who is going to suit up tonight for the Lakers?  Ariza, THT and Nunn are out, Lebron, Ellington and Rondo are questionable and Davis is probable.  At 2-3 with a 3 point win against Memphis while shooting >50% from 3 and an overtime win against the Spurs they have been vulnerable in every game they have played so far this season.  That could change for any game if they get their act together.


1.  Issues the Lakers are having:  Lebron's mobility on defense.  He has rested his ankle and is probably going to play tonight but if we took his 5 game stats his defensive on/off are the worst in his 4 years with LA and 2nd worst in his last 8, and this is for a team who doesn't have quality defensive backups to make his on/off look worse.  

2.  Rebounding:  They are 25th and 27th in offensive and defensive rebound rates.  Considering their front court rotation is Jordan, Dwight, Lebron and Davis this is pretty surprising, and Russ is one of the best rebounding guards to boot.  Their defensive rebounding has been beaten in every way in just 5 games.  Against OKC they gave up 1 or 2 offensive rebounds to 9 different players, against the Spurs and Grizzlies they gave up 7 to Poeltl and 8 to Adams while giving up 16 and 18 total in those games.  In terms of worst on/off offenders Westbrook is killing them as they give up 8 percentage points more in o reb rate with him on the floor, and 2 more with Lebron on the court (mobility again?).

3.  Foul rate:  The Lakers are giving up the 2nd most FTA/100 in the league at ~4 more per 100 than the average team.  The primary culprits in rate here are Jordan and Dwight who are combining for 4.2 per game in only 27 minutes between them, but in total it is Westbrook and Bazemore at 4.2 and 3.6 per game (36 and 28 mpg respectively).  Basically if you can put anyone but Davis into the PnR you can get a foul out of it.  In terms of FTs earned Curry, CP3, Shai and Ja got to the line 9-11 times each, and Keldon Johnson drew 8 in just 23 mins.  

The Cavs should be able to take advantage of both rebounding and foul committing issues.  They are 3rd in FTAs per 100 earned and have averaged 12 offensive rebounds over their last 3 which ought to be sustainable with their size/energy/athleticism.  

Results wise I am expecting a loss tonight with Lebron back on the court, but rebounding and foul drawing could keep them close enough and a rebound in 3pt shooting with the no travel off day getting their legs back could carry it against a much stronger theoretical team.  

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