Potential SG targets, part 1

Note: The numbers here were from before the SAC game, but they didn't shift in any meaningful way.

I have a rough draft of a post about how the Cavs should approach the future.  I put some thoughts down more than a month ago and it is currently entirely wrong and won’t be relevant unless they start struggling at least a little.  

The Cavs are off the development curve right now.  Their strength of schedule adjusted +/- is the best in the East at 4.41.  Part of being at the top of the East right now is the general struggles (including missed time) for Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Brooklyn, but a net rating of +4.4 would give an expected win total for a full season of over 50, in the 51-53 range.  That on its own should be enough to start some internal discussions of ‘can we make a big move, what would it look like, what would it cost?’.  Where the rubber really meets the road is their 8 man* rotation that they have been running.  For some context teams that are typically considered contenders have 8 or 9 man rotations of at least +8**, and really strong contenders are +10, and historically strong contenders are +15.  

The Cavs 8 man rotation, in 891 possessions, is running at +12.7 per 100 thus far in the season***.  We can expand this to a 10 man rotation by adding mins including Lamar Stevens and Dean Wade to the mix and they come out at +8.4 over 1380 possessions.  

As it stands now the Cavs have moved from a 20 something win team to a fringe contender or better in less than a season.  Fringe contender means we really need to talk about opening the window to full contention now, and talking costs and opportunities and approaches.  

First off the limitations:  Bringing back large salaries for the Cavs while improving is very difficult.  While Love’s contract is a tool for matching his on court production has been borderline all-star value on a per min basis (20/13/2.7 on good efficiency and not many turnovers) and swapping him for an upgrade at the SG spot could easily net out to only a small gain or worse.  The Cavs also can’t go over the S&T apron due to the Markkanen acquisition.  The Cavs also should also not be willing to decrease future finals chances for this season.  Costs should either be low or bring back a player whose age and control fits with their core.  

Target position:  Shooting Guard.  That is it.  As it stands Okoro is the weakest link with his offensive struggles this year.  Lineups are still solid with him in, but they are blowing people away without him (the 7 man without Okoro is +25 in 400 possessions, and the 9 man with Wade/Stevens is +17 in 520).   

Salary matching options:  4.2 million dollar TPE, Isaac Okoro’s 6.7 million, Collin Sexton’s 6.3 million.  Dylan Winder’s 2.2 million.  Sexton and Okoro combined could bring back $16.3 million in salary, all three $19 million.  

Potential trade partners:

Indiana:  Reported to be ready to retool if not outright rebuild.  

Players:  Jeremy Lamb:  would be a good sized improvement offensively over Okoro with decent defensive chops, he has an expiring $10.5 million cap hit which would require 2 of Okoro/Windler/Sexton in the deal.  Lamb is not good enough, young enough or on a good enough contract to make that sort of deal unless Indiana is sending back significant assets as well, which is very unlikely.  

Chris Duarte:  Prying him away would be expensive, but it is worth the discussion.  As a rookie he is tied into a very affordable contract with long term control and it also fits into the Cavs TPE.  An offensive improvement over Okoro and a likely defensive downgrade who would fit their timeline.  Worth considering.

Caris Levert:  With his salary he would require Sexton+Okoro+Windler, and he is not worth that.  More complicated trades are difficult without adding too much salary and going over the apron.  For example Caris Levert+Duarte for Sexton+Okoro+Windler could be split into two moves but the extra salary puts them over the apron and some other salary dump would have to happen.  

TJ Warren:  Still recovering from a foot injury, and at $12 million both Okoro and Sexton have to go out in a deal to make it work.  Not worth it.

J Holiday:  Not actually an upgrade over Okoro.

Portland:  Their season is an injury riddled mess and their GM was recently fired.  

Potential players:  CJ McCollum:  Collapsed lung rules him out for the near future

Norman Powell:  Would require Sexton+Okoro to match, is a little on the older side.  

Ben McLemore:  This is one I like as a fringe move.  His $2.4 million expiring contract is easy to obtain, and he shoots significantly better from 3 than Valentine who would be the natural casualty of a roster spot.  This would be one of those ‘wait until nothing else materializes at the deadline before you make’ moves.  

Anfernee Simons:  This is a really strong, but also expensive, potential move.  Simons is a good shooter who plays the same type of offensive role in Portland that would work with Cleveland, and at 22 and as an RFA this year he fits the timeline and they would have to be ready to pay him a reasonable amount in the offseason.  His contract fits into the TPE, so the question would become what price would Portland want to relinquish him.  On the other hand his defensive numbers aren’t great and you are gambling that they improve in a better defensive structure/environment, and in a better role (ie not playing with 2 other undersized guards constantly).  

*Stats here from Cleaningtheglass.com.

** Exceptions being when a high level player misses most of the season but will be ready for the playoffs and teams led by Lebron James in his 30s.

*** While the Cave have had a tough schedule for the whole season my guess is that these lineups have actually faced a weaker schedule.  They were missing multiple pieces during the toughest 4 game stretch on the schedule.  They also are getting great outcomes in opponent 3pt percentage, so there are reasons to temper this number a substantial amount.