Cavs/Knicks preview

 I feel like titling this preview ‘how the knicks will beat the Cavs’, which is funny because I was WAYYY more optimistic (yes I bet on both the Cavs over in wins and making the playoffs, so yes I actually meant it) on the Cavs than the consensus coming into the season.  Realistically how many games can the Cavs keep winning on no rest, with a short roster against expected playoff teams?  The wins themselves have been great, but they haven’t been easy and have been full-energy, whole-game wins to squeak them out.  

This is also the last game like this for a while.  2 days off before a stretch of 4 home games and 8 of 9 total, although the schedule is still difficult and has a pair of b2bs.  Okoro should be back for Wednesday giving them at least some fresh legs, and Love and Markkanen should be back sometime during that first 4 game stretch.  

So how are the Knicks winning games this year?

The 10,000 ft level is that they have inverted last season’s production, going from 3rd on D and 23rd on O to 2nd on O and 21st on D.  Defensively to date they don’t do anything well except protect the rim, they are 29th in 3pta against at 41/100, they are 24th in forcing TOs, 16th in Dreb% and slightly below average in fouls/free throws per 100.  Some of these issues (Dreb) might shift with Nerlens back on the court, he had 19 rebounds in 41 mins in his two games since returning.  They absolutely hammered a think Milwaukee team on the glass (20-7 offensive rebounds) and we just saw the Toronto abuse that stat against the Cavs on Friday.  

Offensively they are 3 heavy.  4th in % and 9th in attempts per 100 makes them 3rd in 3 points made per 100.  They are scoring 13.2 points per 100 more from made threes than the Cavs so far this season, and they are getting looks from every position except for C, so the Cavs will have to play up on their guards and also rotate as Burks, Barrett and Fourneir are spreading the floor well and Randle is also hitting them from the outside.  

It isn’t hard to pin down their defensive issues either, when Kemba sits they go from a 3rd percentile defense (119.6) to a 95th percentile defense (95.6).  He probably isn’t literally that bad but that sort of gap is still at least largely attributable to his lack of size and now limited athleticism.  If his 3pt shooting regresses to the 30s then the Knicks are going to have a hard time playing him at all.  

The worrying part is that the Knicks are 10 deep and the Cavs 7 deep and are just looking to survive that 8th/9th man mins right now.  

Path to a win:

1.  Evan Mobley on Julius Randle.  Randle is an abusive player, put a big on him and he will start out on the perimeter and put a wing on him and he will push you around inside.  Mobley can stay with him on the outside and 1 on 1 Randle post ups are a fine outcome for a large number of possessions in the half court.  As long as Mobley can hang without drawing help then some of those 39 3s a game don’t get generated.  

2. Abusing Kemba, and I mean every damn time down the court.  This is a rare chance for SexLand to go up against a guy who is both smaller and slower than they are.  This should be pop-a-shot night for Daruis, come off a screen and let it fly with Robinson/Nerlens most likely playing back to prevent the drive.  We need at least a dozen 3pt attempts from Sexland and more like 14-15 should be the goal.  

3. Wing shooting.  NY is taking 38.7 3s a game and giving up 41.7.  In Toronto’s win over NY GTJ and OG combined for 23 attempts from 3.  Cedi is pulling at 14.3 attempts per 100, that is 7th in the league for players at over 100 mins played.  This could definitely be a ‘I can’t believe I was starting to trust Osman again’ game, or it could be another 5/9 going crazy for Cedi.  Wade and Windler need to be pulling as well.  And hitting Dean, we are looking at you.  20% is not going to cut it.