Preview vs the Wizards

 Before we preview the Cavs/Wizards game I just want to clear something up.  The Cavs are not playing ‘big’.  The national coverage has run with ‘starting 3 7 footers’ and completely failed to update with Lauri and Love out for the past 4 games.  In those 4 games the Cavs are starting their biggest lineup and Mobley/Allen are eating 100% of the center mins and only overlapping 20-22 mpg.  Yes Dean Wade is starting at SF and he is closer to a 4, he isn’t a huge SF.  Once they start splitting Mobley and Allen up their lineups have actually been quite small.  Against the Knicks once Mobley sat the lineup was Allen/Wade/Osman/Rubio/Sexton, and then Wade was pulled for Windler, shrinking it further.  The next lineup was Mobley/Osman/Windler/Rubio/Garland, not a big lineup at all.  Realistically the Cavs are cycling through big/medium/small lineups regularly with their limited options in the front court.  

On to Washington.  The Wizards have one of the surprising starts to the season and it is tough to get a real grasp on the reality of this team.  Their preseason schedule looks reasonably tough but the rearview is much easier.  2 games each against Boston and Atlanta who are a combined 8-14 so far, a win against 4-6 Milwaukee who was missing Middleton and Lopez, a win against Indiana who was down their top two SFs.  Their best win so far has been a 28 point beating that they delivered to the 6-4 Grizzlies, and they split two against Toronto.  

It is very hard to grade this schedule, part of the reason that Boston and Atlanta are struggling is a 1-3 record vs the Wizards.  

Aspects of this team are screaming out for regression, so far they are 5-1 at home and 2-2 on the road so they have a bit of a home favored schedule.  The big news though is they are leading the league in 3pt% against, and are giving up the fewest made threes per 100 by a large margin at 8.8 per 100 with the number 2 team coming in at 10.3.  If 3pt% against them regressed to the mean their defense would go from #8 to the 14-18 range.  In their wins teams have been shooting under 27% from 3 against them, vs 35% in their losses.  In fact the Wizards have won a single game in which their opponents shot over 35%, and have multiple massive stinkers against them (2/26, no not the date that is how many threes Boston made in one game against them).  

The Cavs?  The Cavs are hot from 3 coming into the game, hitting 43% in their 4 game winning streak.  Who gets Sexton’s mins and shots?  Garland should get some of his offensive burden and he is shooting well, Windler and Osman as well who are top two on the team in 3pt%, however Okoro is also in line to get some time and he is not a good shooter.  

Defensively the Wizards aren’t anything special without their opponents missing 3s, they are 8th in 2pt% against which is solid, but they are 30th in forcing TOs and middle of the pack in rebounding and fouling.  Gafford and Montrez are undersized and they should get beaten inside by our bigs sheer length, at least in that starting unit.  Gafford in particular struggles on the defensive glass but he makes it up on the offensive end, and is also only playing 19 mpg.  After the Cavs starting bigs are split up Washington actually has a size advantage in the forward position with Kuzma and Avidja having good length.

Offensively the Wizards are good at foul drawing, awful at offensive rebounding and average at everything else.  Number 4 in free throws made per 100 they go against the Cavs and their 2nd fewest made free throws against per 100.  The gap between what the Wizards earn and what the Cavs give up is 6.6 points per 100 which is about the gap between the #15 and #30 defense in the NBA so far this year.  This is a crucial stat for the Cavs, the Wizards average over 22 FTAs per game while the Cavs have only given up more than 17 in a game twice this year (27 vs Phoenix and 24 vs the Knicks).  

Who starts at the 2?  I assume Okoro but it could be Rubio with a quick pull or even Windler/Osman.  I would personally start Okoro and then bench him + a big for Rubio+wing (Osman/Windler) at the 5 min mark but I don’t think any answer is clearly correct here.  You could argue for size and shooting with Windler at the 2, you could argue for putting your best lineup out there with Garland+Rubio, and you could argue for on ball defense with Okoro to help against Beal/Dinwiddie.  I’d suggest the latter but not push it.