Give me a W, Give me an I, Give me an N

 What’s that spell?  WINdler!  


There are ugly wins, moral victories, bad losses etc throughout a season.  This one is hard to classify, the Cavs almost threw it away in the waning moments and needed a missed 3 to avoid overtime against a tired team trying to find their pace despite shooting 50% from 3.  On the other hand they took the W against a likely playoff team while missing 3 of their top 8 (expected, we will see) rotation guys.  


  1.  The Cavs have depth!  Wade is a lesser version of Markannen, Stevens is a lesser version of Okoro.  These things don’t win you a playoff series but they get you a W or two in the regular season.  Our 9, 10 and 11 guys can actually step in and play a role that fits next to the remaining top rotation pieces.

  2. The Cavs could really struggle if Rubio goes down.  There is so much more than competence coming out of our backup PG spot.  The 2nd quarter run out was so much Rubio which is astounding for a guy who scored zero on 0-7 shooting.  4 assists from the waning seconds of the first to when he sat in the 2nd.  From the time he stepped on the court in the first to the time he sat in the second 9 out of 10 made baskets were assisted (plus a few FTs at least some of which would have been assists).  


With Love and Lauri out for multiple games there is some room to give this bench run, and some answers will come naturally from the play.  The questions to watch are


  1.  Cedi.  Obviously running incredibly hot from 3, but he is also taking them at a high rate.  Last night pushed him up to 13.4 per 100.  Obviously confidence helps, but he is getting open, his teammates are getting passes to him and he’s hitting them.  Of note though is he is actually taking and hitting some off the dribble as well which would be a categorical  shift for him.  To date he has been assisted on 79% of his made 3s, which is a career low.  Being able to come off a screen and hit one occasionally makes his pnr game much better as every rim attack he attempts is an adventure at full speed.  

  2. Is Windler going to stay healthy?  He got more burn than Osman who was playing well and almost as much as Wade who started.

  3. Can their rebounding hold up without Lauri and Love?  It was rough with those two defensively but at least they were making it up on the other side.  Last night they had 5 total against 17 TOs.  That is a losing proposition unless you run hot from 3.  


Next Up:  Travel!  Again!  Then the Raptors.  How are the Raptors beating teams this year?  Possessions Over Opponents, that’s right they are POOing all over their opposition.  #2 in forcing TOs, #7 in preventing them, #1 in offensive rebounding and #12 in Dreb%.  In terms of total possessions their TO differential nets them 4.1 more per 100, and 4.9 in rebounding differentials.  This is a bad matchup for a team who has struggled rebounding defensively, has at times completely forgotten how to keep the ball out of their opponents hands and won’t have their big lineups which generate offensive rebounds available either.  Their trio of GTJ, OG and FVV are combining for 6.2 steals per game while their top 5 in Orebs a game are combining for 11 total (slightly inflated due to missed games from Barnes).  There is no one player to box out or avoid on the penetration, though GTJ is really racking up the steals.


Mobely’s only real current competition for ROY might be out as Barnes missed yesterday’s game with a sprained thumb.  That would be a large equalizer as I don’t think that we want to see Wade, Osman and Windler trying to stay in front of him or box him out defensively.  


One major note is that Toronto is running their guys as hard as they can.  In terms of total mins played they have the #1 (FVV), #3(OG) and #13(GTJ) and in mpg its #1, #8 and #45 (but with Barnes coming in at #20 in mpg).  They have no backup PG to speak of (Dragic is out of the rotation) behind FVV and they rely on their defense and rebounding to get extra looks on offense.  


Toronto is a high effort team whose schedule has also been tiring travel wise (still not as bad as Cleveland’s nor their opponents as tough), and they are coming off three road games (three wins, five game winning streak) and have Brooklyn right after the Cavs.  The Cavs will likely need another big bench night to take this one, though if Barnes is out that opens the door for Mobley/Allen to really expose their lack of size inside.  

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