A win and a preview

 Beating Detroit doesn’t give us a lot of information, but it does answer one question- is this team going to play up/down to their opposition?  It certainly didn’t look that way against Detroit, they kept their defensive intensity up (Detroit’s 82 ortg is 16 points lower than their ortg coming into the game and even normalizing 3pt shooting it was still double digits lower) which won them the game handily.  Tonight’s game vs Boston is a larger test, but we will get to that.

Takeaways since Collin’s injury:  

Garland’s usage is up a bit the past two games but his 3ptar is way up.  He is averaging almost 10 attempts per 36 mins which would put him ~#12-13 so far, way up from his 6.7 which is 84th (and quite a bit lower before these games).  Almost 2/3rds of his shots (19/30) have come from 3 and he has taken only a single Free Throw, averaging 20/5.5 against 3 TOs.  Not quite a star turn but if he can add in a few drives and FTAs on top of those attempts and not instead then he is in all-star PG range.

Mobley is breaking my mental model for players.  His incredibly fast learning throughout the season has me seeing it everywhere.  Going 5/9 from 3 doesn’t mean anything, but because of his curve in every aspect of the game I have started telling myself it is plausible that he has simply learned to shoot.  This is a time will tell thing, but I am starting to create irrational expectations for Mobley for THIS YEAR and with the way he is playing, confirmation bias is everywhere… unless of course it isn’t bias and it is simply confirmation.  

The Cavs really need Markkannen back.  Wade is on the low end of functional for this team without Sexton.  Pop him on the Lakers next to Lebron/Westbrook and he would be an analytical darling but the Cavs need players to finish shots which requires taking them.  Some guys increase their usage when an on ball teammate goes down, Wade has lost his without Sexton.  Three straight games with a single digit usage (defrayed with 6 assists in his last two games) is one of the reasons that the offense has started out as a slog.  The Cavs have scored 22 and 24 first quarter points the past two and they don’t have a top end scorer to bring them back into games should another 1st lead them to a major deficit in a coming game.  

Windler looks like a good connective piece.  He has passing, rebounding and shooting, just like Urkel Osman, and the two of them together are helping to hold their smaller lineups together (I’m not going to cite their 150 possessions at +18 together so far, that would be silly).  

Up Next:  The Boston Celtics

With Jaylen Brown in the starting lineup 3-5, without 3-1.  He is out tonight (as of writing this).  This is largely scheduling (wins vs Houston and Milwaukee down either 3 or 4 starters) but it does show that the Celtics are able to lean on the other top rotation pieces to cover for his absence.  They are still 4-5 pp100 better with Brown on than off but he isn’t a keystone player who they can’t function without.

Boston has both high quality wins (vs Miami on a b2b) and terrible losses (32 point loss vs Toronto) and it is really hard to guess who shows up for them tomorrow.  They have been better since their public shaming via Smart, but also had two easy wins in that 4-1 stretch.  They are playing on a home/away B2B and coming off an OT game in which they only played 9, with only 8 getting 6+ mins.  In fact they have played 4 OT games already and 6 OT periods across those games.  

Outcome wise they are average as all hell through 12 games, in the 8 factors they are not higher than 11 in any single one and not lower than 21 for 7 of the 8, with Free throws allowed being a bottom of the barrel 28th.  

This current Cavs team looks at least as good as this Celtics lineup, with homecourt and not coming off an OT game the Cavs are in position for this one.  They will have problems with Boston’s starting lineup, Williams/Tatum/Smart as a trio generate great results, but things fall apart without exactly those three on the court (Smart+Williams still has good outcomes but on the smallest sample of the three combos).  The Cavs need to avoid digging a large hole with their not quite a starting unit, starting unit against the Celtics best unit, and their energy and functional* depth should carry the day.

*Parker and Kanter give the Celtics theoretical depth, but they don’t play.