Cleveland Cavaliers Blog

 Cavs fans aren't going to call this a 'hidden' leap after watching Darius go for 51 and 41 in two of his last 3 games but hear me out on this one. So far this season Garland's production has been flat compared to last year despite two 40+ point games out of 9 (only 8 full).  Per 100 his scoring is up a bit from 30.3 pp/100 to 32.4 pp/100 on a bit lower efficiency of 55.9% vs 57.6% with a decline in his assist numbers (12.0 p/100 down to 10.7 p/100 and assist % down from 39.9 to 35.0).  If you just looked at his outside shooting numbers you might be convinced that if anything he is running hot at 42.3% from 3 against a 38.1% career mark.  But you would be wrong. Darius is actually getting unlucky- or has gotten much worse at basic basketball skills in the offseason, since the latter didn't happen its bad luck.   Point 1:  Garland is hitting 77% of his free throws against a career mark of 86%, in total this is ~ 4.5 missed free throws total, or ~ 0.5 po...

  What is wrong with you people?  Seriously, what is wrong with Cavs fans/commentators and their combination of love for the Mitchell trade and hate for the Cavs team after the trade?  Yes I’ll use an example, and yes I’ll generalize from it. The Chase Down Pod, two (alleged) Cavs fans who blew up over the Mitchell trade and are thrilled with it just predicted the Cavs to win 50-52 games and win a, singular, playoff series.   Junk.  Garbage.  Inconsistent takes everywhere. Back up to last season.  Going into the All-Star break the Cavs were on a 49.5 win pace, and they had already lost Sexton 11 games in, and Rubio at game 34.  Darius had missed 11 as well, so this team had been hit with a pair of major injuries, several minor injuries and was still on a nearly 50 win pace.   The trade for a 26 year old, 3X all-star is going to make us roughly as good as we were with Rubio and Lauri and pre Garland’s leap (24/8 post all-star break) ...

  If you are one of my 12 readers (thanks btw) you know that I don’t like this deal, so let’s dispense with all that.  No breakdown, no rants, just a detailed look at what this move directly implies and if it realistically accomplishes its goals. This type of trade where the bulk of your assets are swapped for a single player, declares that you believe the team constructed now is a finals contender.  Anything else is a huge disappointment, because there is no next move to make, no way to fix a situation that isn’t working out.  You can make marginal decisions, which veteran FA for a piece of the MLE or the minimum you chase first, but you are constrained to the core as it is.  This is most clearly seen by looking at the Lakers and Westbrook.  The Lakers gave up less in value to land Wesbrook than the Mitchell deal, but proportional to their assets it is similar.  The 22nd pick, a handful of 2nds and three rotation players left them with THT and the slo...

  Your number 14 selection:  Ochai Agbaji.   I’m not going to slow play this one, I don’t like the selection, which is more or less why I’ve been low key ignoring him in other pieces so far in the season preview. The first issue is that 3pt shooting is wildly overrated in the NBA.  Not that it isn’t important, but being really, really good at it- great even- can still leave you struggling to find a role while yammering fools talk about how you ‘always need more shooting’ as if its some unique talent.  Joe Harris led the league twice in 3pt %, and has posted 4 full seasons on good volume (350+ attempts) at > 41%, and he didn’t find a good rotation role until his age 26 season after he had been dumped by a pair of teams.  Seth Curry is a 44% career 3pt shooter who didn’t find a role until he was 26, until his 5 team- and that team let him walk for a 1 year/2.8 million dollar deal.   OK, so how about more direct comparisons.  Ochai was a...

  So let’s talk dynasties.  In the ‘00-’01 season a 25 year old Allen Iverson won the MVP, carried his team to 56 wins, a finals appearance, and handed the only loss all post season to a Laker’s juggernaut.  That is a good peak, but there was no heft behind it.  56 wins was the only time they cracked 50 wins with Iverson at the helm, and they missed the playoffs (twice) more often than they made the 2nd round (once) with AI after that run.  For AI’s ‘prime’ his team wasn’t a contender and was fighting to make the playoffs, 1st ballot Hofer on the roster for a decade and you aren’t even close to a dynasty. OK, well that was only 1 star, how about two stars?  We just watched Utah break up their duo.  A 21 year old Mitchell and a 25 year old Gobert won 48 games together and made the 2nd round of the playoffs, they had some better regular season success but ended with more 1st round exits (3) as 2nd round exits (2) in their 5 years together.   Ac...

  Our starting point here is the players the Cavs have kept from last season to this season (counting Sexton and not dropping anyone year which would have to happen).  How good was this group last season?  In 5,000 possessions with 5 of Allen, Mobley, Lauri, Sexton, Garland, Rubio, Okoro, Osman, Love, Levert, Wade, Windler and Stevens the Cavs were +5.6/100 with that 13 man rotation.  That net rating would have tied them for 4th in the entire league and 2nd behind the Celtics in the East, with a projected record of 55-27.  That is a little favorable to the Cavs because I am not running top 12 rotations for every other team, but this is just a starting point. A healthy Cavs team from last season with no additions and no internal improvement would project at a 55 win pace, an 11 game increase on last seasons win total, and a number that typically gets attached to a top 4 seed in the East (and would at times be the #1 seed).  I count 8 players that are favorit...

  Isaac Okoro:  Okoro’s sophomore improvement has been dramatically underrated by fans, partially because his rookie year was bad enough that improvement can still look like not great play, but largely I think this is scoring bias.  Isaac doesn’t score much and didn’t increase his usage (actually decreased) and a jump in ppg is the easiest way to catch eyeballs.  In terms of counting stats per 100 he was flat in scoring, blocks, assists and fouls, and only showed notable improvement in offensive rebounding and TOs.   Advanced metrics tell a very different story.  His scoring was flat, but his efficiency jumped a good amount, and his three shooting splits (2pt%, 3pt% and FT%) all increased, his FTr increased, shots at the rim and finishing improved.  His broad suite of advanced stats improved as well, and by large amounts.  His WS went from 0.9 to 4.2, BPM from -5.1 to -1.7 and his LEBRON popped from -3.55 to -0.48.   To put that LEBRON i...