Season Preview: Isaac Okoro

 Isaac Okoro:  Okoro’s sophomore improvement has been dramatically underrated by fans, partially because his rookie year was bad enough that improvement can still look like not great play, but largely I think this is scoring bias.  Isaac doesn’t score much and didn’t increase his usage (actually decreased) and a jump in ppg is the easiest way to catch eyeballs.  In terms of counting stats per 100 he was flat in scoring, blocks, assists and fouls, and only showed notable improvement in offensive rebounding and TOs.   Advanced metrics tell a very different story.  His scoring was flat, but his efficiency jumped a good amount, and his three shooting splits (2pt%, 3pt% and FT%) all increased, his FTr increased, shots at the rim and finishing improved.  His broad suite of advanced stats improved as well, and by large amounts.  His WS went from 0.9 to 4.2, BPM from -5.1 to -1.7 and his LEBRON popped from -3.55 to -0.48.  

To put that LEBRON increase in context- that is a larger jump than Garland (-3.78 to -1.04) or Sexton (-4.28 to -2.03) had as sophomores and that pair were both recognized as having improved greatly.  If Okoro matched Sexton’s 3rd year LEBRON improvement (by far the smaller of the two) his year 3 would be a solid +0.66.  In short it isn’t a stretch to expect Okoro to be a neutral to positive player in year 3, though due to high noise in these metrics we shouldn’t outright expect it.

Okoro right now is locking himself into the ‘Of course not, but maybe’ category.  Of course Okoro isn’t going to become a Jimmy Butler level player.  His skills are too raw, he won’t have the defensive impact, he doesn’t show a lot of versatility.  But Maybe: but maybe we should remember that Butler was 22 as a rookie, and he didn’t beat Okoro’s DLEBRON until his age 24 season (which was also the year he saw a large offensive jump as well).  Maybe we should remember that Isaac is only 4 months older than Evan Mobley, and maybe we should recall that Jaylen Brown, Jimmy Butler and Demar Derozen did not enter the league as on the ball maestros but took several years to hit that level.  

I think that it is worth highlighting Okoro’s defense, as in my view improvement is the best metric to guesstimating future outcomes.  Okoro’s defense was solid for a rookie, but was just solid to good last year overall.  Because it doesn’t come with improved numbers it has gotten lumped in with his ‘he’s a good defender, we expect that’ reputation, but improvement on both sides of the ball at a solid level isn’t overly common for young players, and is most common among future stars.  What is difficult for many (including myself) to see is how that stardom would come about for Isaac which does put a damper on things, but also doesn’t come from a strong statistical approach.  I think I can sketch out an archetype that he could fit into.  His physical strength, an asset on the defensive end and something that should increase for several more years, could allow him to score around the basket.  He has already shown a leap in efficiency at the hoop, relative frequency at the hoop and a higher FTr as well as a small bump in oreb%.  Full exploitation here would require a much stronger off the bounce game and he will be limited by that development- but if that development should come he already has most of the tools to generate high value finishing if he can get the initiation to a higher level.