Dynasty for the Cavs? Or 'Don't trade for Donovan Mitchell'

 So let’s talk dynasties.  In the ‘00-’01 season a 25 year old Allen Iverson won the MVP, carried his team to 56 wins, a finals appearance, and handed the only loss all post season to a Laker’s juggernaut.  That is a good peak, but there was no heft behind it.  56 wins was the only time they cracked 50 wins with Iverson at the helm, and they missed the playoffs (twice) more often than they made the 2nd round (once) with AI after that run.  For AI’s ‘prime’ his team wasn’t a contender and was fighting to make the playoffs, 1st ballot Hofer on the roster for a decade and you aren’t even close to a dynasty.

OK, well that was only 1 star, how about two stars?  We just watched Utah break up their duo.  A 21 year old Mitchell and a 25 year old Gobert won 48 games together and made the 2nd round of the playoffs, they had some better regular season success but ended with more 1st round exits (3) as 2nd round exits (2) in their 5 years together.  

Actual dynasties are rare things, and even young cores who are already good with teams trading assets to push them higher fail at high rates to achieve that level.  Or perhaps is it making those pushes which causes the failures?  A little from column A, a little from column B I guess.

So it seems just a wee bit premature to talk dynasty for the Cavs, so I won’t.  But if I was going to do so, it would go something like this:

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The Cavs are loaded for a young team.  By average age they were the 8th youngest team in the league last season, with 4 of the others active tanking teams, one (Spurs) who finally started tanking this past off season, and 2 playoff teams in Minnesota and Memphis.  Minnesota has already punted on the youth aspect of their team, trading a stack of picks and a pair of rotation pieces who were under 26 last season for a 30 year old Rudy Gobert.  But even before that trade there was a substantial difference between the two teams.  The Wolves’ best players last season had a 5.5 year age gap between them, while the Cavs can fit their entire 2021/22 starting lineup in a 4 year and 28 day age span from the 20 year old Mobley to the 24 year old Markkanen.  You can even slip unexpected contributor Lamar Stevens into that age range and the addition of Ochai Agbaji through the draft.  Only Sexton is (currently) limited to one year of team control, but as of right now the Cavs could run out a starting lineup and two reserves all in their age 25 season or younger and all within 4 years and 28 days of each other in age.  Towns will be 30 by the time Edwards finishes his age 25 season, and Russell/Beasely (had he not been traded) would both be 29.  Edwards/Towns could easily be a very strong duo for the next 8 seasons, but they would still have to make a lot of moves just within their starting 5 that the Cavs wouldn’t (just naively looking at team control/age).  

How about Memphis?  Memphis also had a tight age range for their core last season, with 4 of their top 5 in total minutes in either their age 22 or 23 seasons, a 25 year old 6th man and a 20 year old 8th man.  One has already been moved though, their least valuable (but also least expensive) traded in the offseason in Melton and they are at decision years for Brooks (27, UFA this offseason), Clarke (26, RFA), Adams (29, UFA, starter), and lost Anderson (28, UFA) this past offseason- and have significant injury concerns.

Even compared to the next youngest strong team in the league the Cavs have a solid age edge.  Garland is 6 months younger than Ja, Mobley a year and a half younger than JJJ, heck Jarrett Allen is only 2 months older than Desmond Bane.  I’m not even sure I would swap Allen for JJJ currently with their contracts/health taken into account, and no on in the league would make that deal with Mobley in his place.  

Any useful definition* of ‘young core’ puts the Cavs at the top of the league at the intersection of ‘players who are already pretty good’ with ‘players who are young and team controlled’.

It doesn’t stop there: the fit is mostly clean as well.  Sexton and Garland clearly haven’t figured it out together, and plausibly never will, but Sexton is the least controlled player on the Cavs list, and at best 4th most valuable right now. Their top 3 all worked well together last season, along with Lauri and Okoro, with Ocahi theoretically being a clean fit.  Even Stevens managed some strong lineups (with Garland +6.9/100 over 1,100 possessions), and Dean Wade (still not yet 26, despite not being young enough to make this grouping) fit in alongside the top 3 as well.

The only choppiness here is if the Cavs have to downgrade Sexton’s pure talent level to replace him or jam him into a 6th man role off the bench.  Outside of navigating injury and soup related risks the Cavs have only a handful of decisions that they have to make in the near term.

1.  Decided between Sexton, Levert or other as the secondary scorer/creator 

2.  Decide on Love’s role/contract going forward

3. Asses Rubio as a longer term backup PG coming off his injury

4. Minor end of the bench decisions to fit Sexton onto the roster.

In the absence of catastrophic injuries the Cavs simply need to avoid major mistakes (4/80 to Levert would be an example, trading for Donovan Mitchell would be another) to be a top 4 team in the East for multiple seasons. 

That, however, is a far cry from a dynasty.  Obviously to get to dynastic levels the Cavs would need to be perennially in the top 2 of the East but also to extend that window out past 4-5 years.  In the modern NBA the ability to do this is restricted by the high cost of having multiple All-Stars on their 3rd contracts not only filling in the cap but also putting your team in the repeater tax.  

Look at the Celtic’s future.  Tatum and Brown are 24 and 26 this season, but Brown has only 2 years left before his next big deal and Tatum only 3 before he has a PO.  In that time they will need to replace Horford, resign or replace Grant Williams, resign or replace Derrick White, and resign or replace Peyton Pricthard, and resign/replace Brogdon.  Due to their trades (#16 to dump Walker, #25 to land White, and their 2023 1st for Brogdon) along with missed selections (2019 and 2020 1st rounders were sent out as parts of the White and Brogdon trades) means they will have to work to find low cost contributors to balance out should be a very top heavy 2 man salary pairing (if they can keep Brown at all).  

To avoid this the Cavs will need to hit on at least one selection (solid rotation guy or better) in the coming years and that means acquiring more draft picks, not trading them away for Caris Levert.  Keeping last year’s pick was a nice consolation prize but Levert should still cost them their 2023 selection and their choice of the first 8 players taken in the 2nd round in 2022.  Considering that injuries and poor contract choices often force teams to pony up future draft capital to reshape a roster.  

For the Cavs to look for dynasty potential they should have an eye toward trying to acquire some additional draft capital and the coming year is the season to do it.  The obvious starting point is the Sexton/Levert decision.  It is very unlikely that those two will both be on the roster in the long term, their skill sets don’t mesh particularly well, neither has positional versatility and we don’t need two secondary scorers with Garland in most outcomes.  

The other note is that the Cavs have a good amount of cap space this coming offseason thanks to the sheer number of rookie deals.  The Cavs could try to swing a midseason trade with one of Levert/Sexton to bring back some dead salary in 2023 (but doesn’t extend longer) and draft assets, or in a perfect situation some half dead salary that the Cavs are uniquely situated to get some value out of.  One hypothetical example: A longer than hoped for recovery time for Gallinari could prompt Boston to bolster their roster.  Gallo and a decent 2nd for Osman would be a reasonable offer in such a situation.  Then of course there is the possibility of picking up something in a Sexton Sign and Trade.  

A long time out from now, but the Cavs are in the pole position to be the next NBA dynasty, which might not mean much since that means ‘most likely team to, but still a large underdog’ but it's just fun times looking as a fan at the team structure for now.  

*Players on their rookie deals is a poor definition, a 27 year old Duarte in the final year of his rookie deal will count as ‘young core’ while last seasons’ 23 year old Jarett Allen would not for example.