Season Preview: Lauri Markkanen

C’est la vie.  One of the few young guys that it is hard to see upside for, which is surprising given a solid rookie year followed by what looked like a substantial step forward in season 2 in which he increased his USG, FTr, FT% and reb%.  His TS mark was flat though due to a decrease in his 2pt% which was led by a drop in his finishing at the rim.  He doesn’t finish well around the rim for a big, but he does OK for a forward- the past two seasons at 65%, with his Chicago season being 37th percentile and his Cleveland season being 49th.

Why is Lauri a big?  He’s tall, that is roughly it.  Seriously, that is why he has been put at PF/C for his whole career until a 241 possession accidental experiment in his final year in Chicago.  Just as a reminder that 3 big lineup wasn’t with two defensive studs which is what everyone is crediting his success to last year, 186 of those possessions came with Vucevic at C- go look up his reputation, and those lineups had a +14.8 net rating with a 98th percentile offense and an 82nd percentile defense.  Then we had this past season where Lauri played more than half his possessions listed at SF, and the Cavs were a solid +3.5 in that time.  

Yet some people (I’m looking at your ‘The Chase Down’) still insist that Lauri is a big playing SF, and not a SF who was pushed into being a big.  So let us look at his non height measurements.

Wingspan:  No combine measurements but consensus seems to be around 6’11.  This is tiny for a C, below average for a PF and roughly average for a SF.  

Height/weight combination:  We don’t get good (any) strength measurements for NBA players, the best we can do is a weight divided by height.  In terms of weight/height Lauri is a lightweight for Cs, average for PFs and big for a SF.  If you take a center of gravity adjustment he is small for a PF and average/above average for a SF.  Lauri is listed at 7’0 and 240, compare to a 3-4 forward like Jae Crowder who is listed at 6’6 235 and it’s easy to understand why his post ups tend toward the turnaround 16 footers rather than a deep seal and a foul under that basket.  

Averages:  As stated before his finishing at the hoop is low for a big, but roughly average for a wing.  His offensive rebounding is poor for a big (7th-23rd percentile his Chicago years) and average for a wing (53rd last year), shot blocking poor for a big (11th-29th percentile) and below average for a wing (41st).  His defensive rebounding worked out to above average across his 4 CHI seasons with good numbers the first two before they dropped off to slightly below average, and was above average last season at 69th percentile.  His FTr was below 40th percentile for a big 3 out of 4 Chi seasons, and 50th percentile last year and his FTr was almost exactly his career average last season (.226 vs .220 career).  

Once you stop looking at his listed height as a 7 footer this all comes into focus.  His lack of wingspan/leverage/bulk prevents him from being consistently above average as a shot blocker (on ball or help), rebounder (when both sides are considered), efficient at the rim scorer and all the basic skills that good bigs have.  On the other hand his length is a + at SF, his rebounding above average, his finishing at the rim (which mostly comes from the perimeter in transition or on cuts) average, and his size is a + defending wings who like to post up.  

LImitations:  Obviously he has limitations, he doesn’t have ideal lateral agility (though I dispute the exaggerations some make when discussing it) and he needs that length to make up for it.  He can’t size down like ideal 3s can and switch onto guards, but he can switch more readily onto 4s and 5s than a lot of those 3s.  This is less valuable, but not no value as we saw in their OT win against Denver without Allen to guard Jokic.  

If it comes down to the playoffs we can only speculate, but there will be good matchups and bad ones.  In the ATL play-in game Lauri led the team with a +8 rating and got 12 3pt attempts up as the Hawks collapsed on dribble penetration to defend the PnR.  This is where Lauri’s height actually becomes an asset as he gets to shoot over rotating defenders.  He won’t ever be Durant like in this respect but with guards and wings (or slower bigs) rotating out he can get these looks off at a high rate.  

Relative positional value puts Lauri at the SF, both because the Cavs need him and because his skill set lines up there- imperfectly but better than at any other position.  The final stat to hammer this home, in four seasons as a big his highest eFG% was 60% (the year he shot 40% from 3) which was 71st percentile for that position, last season he was at 54.6%, which put him at the 70th percentile for a forward instead of a big.  If he shot close to that 40% mark from 3 again he would be in the 90th percentile most years for a forward.  Would you prefer an average SF or a below average PF?  Positional value alone would dictate you would rather an average SF over an average PF, making this an easy call.  Team needs only amplify this.  

Do you doubt he’s an average starting SF in the NBA?

Eastern conference starting SFs last year included

Duncan Robinson, KCP, Thybulle, RJ Barrett, Hunter, whoever you classify as SF from Indiana or Detroit, and a similar number would come out of the West.  No matter how you slice it or reclassify (Butler is SF, Robinson is SG!) you are still looking at Lauri coming in the 13-20th range for starting SFs.