Heat Rematch Preview

 Looking back:  After the previous win over Miami I wrote this

‘The 8- man rotation of Darius, Rubio, Okoro, Cedi, Lauri, Love, Mobley and Allen has played 500 possessions together and is +13.3 in that stretch (all stats here per Cleaningtheglass.com).’

That rotation is now almost 1000 possessions together and is at +13.  Also

‘The opposition is going to be fairly weak for these possessions because of how injuries have fallen but that is a dominant number, and their 9 man rotations with Windler, Stevens or Wade are +14.8,  +11.7, +6.2, in 592, 592 and 821 possessions respectively’

Those 9 man rotations are +13.8 (1090, Windler), +12.7 (1140, Stevens), +8.3 (1330, Wade).  Or any of those +8.9 (1690).  So over increasingly large samples we have results that are screaming top 4 seed as long as the Cavs aren’t missing 2 or more crucial rotation pieces, and top 2 seed if they are only missing Sexton.  Functionally the only thing that the Cavs are missing this year is a win against a top team.  

Looking forward:  Miami at home tonight.  The Heat have been holding on without Butler and Bam, going 3-4 in their last 7 where they have been missing at least one (and both for 5 of those games).  However they are -28 across those 7 games.  The Cavs should be significant favorites but this is not a team that lies down ever, and they have wins against a mostly healthy Bucks and a depleted Bulls team in their last two.  Considering the size of the win the Cavs had last time they will come out physical, high energy and aggressive.  They could, in theory, catch the Cavs and build a lead that they are able to grind out.  The Cavs legs were clearly pretty dead late in the Sacramento game (6 games and 6 travel days in 9 nights will do that) and one day off isn’t a cure all for tired legs.

We can’t learn too much directly from the previous game because the Cavs shot 51% from 3 and 91% from the free throw line with the Heat missing 2 more FTAs than the Cavs while taking 10 fewer attempts and making 4 fewer 3s while taking 6 more attempts.  Differentials like that prevent teams from running their prefered sets and force them into on the fly shifts to try to catch up.  Early in the game the Cavs emphasized their size advantage, posting up Lauri on Robinson (drew a pair of FTs), and Allen/Lauri/Love/Mobley combined for 42 of their 73 TS attempts that came before the bench squads were emptied.  

There isn’t much the Heat can do about the size disadvantage, with their current injuries Dedmon is their only realistic option listed above 6’7 so they are going to be running heavy 1 big/4 perimeter lineups again tonight.  Their best shot then is to be really aggressive in the passing lanes, trying to deny post passes and spark breaks and live in transition.  Smaller teams are simply not having half court success against healthy Cavs lineups and Miami was no exception two weeks ago, earning only 13 free throw attempts, getting blocked 14 times and ending up taking more deep 2s than they wanted.  Being extremely physical, gambling on steals and trying to force the rhythm of the game in their direction is both their best bet and also in the DNA of these players and coach.  

Still I am optimistic that it won’t work.  The Cavs should be able to remedy most dead leg situations with Wade/Stevens/Windler off the bench to provide energy.  Their rotations with those guys picking up spot roles don’t diminish at all, though Garland and Rubio both being gassed will always put them at risk of a bad loss.  Without that the Cavs are simply a matchup nightmare for undermanned teams, if you have any offensive weakness that is a spot from  which a 7fter can help, or a solid wing in Okoro or a quick handed Garland who has quietly moved into the top 30 in steals per game.  Garland isn’t doing that much though because his on ball defense has improved dramatically, and his quick feet allow him to stay in front for long enough to give shot blockers enough time to come over top to help.  Try to run him off screens and end up with Mobley switched on the perimeter, and it took less than a dozen games for NBA guards to go from ‘time to teach the rook some business’ to ‘time to share, I’m sure my teammates would like more shots’.