Preview vs Nets November 22nd

 Back to basketball!  The Cavs not very easy, playoff team schedule continues with a second game against the Nets.  Brooklyn is a flawed but very difficult team to play against, Harden (who has regained his offensive form) and Durant are mismatches that the Cavs have no one in particular to defend against as we are once again denied the excitement of watching Evan Mobley test his defensive chops against an absolute top tier scorer in Durant.  


The Cavs have been a fundamentally different offense since they lost Collin Sexton.  They currently stand at 20th in the league in 3pt attempts per game at 33.9, but that is pretty close to a hard split before and after Sexton’s injury*.  Since that injury they have averaged almost 39 attempts a game which would tie them for 6th per game across the league and the last 5 games it has been over.  Considering that Markkanen (#2 on the Cavs in 3pa/g) hasn’t played in that span and Love (#5 in 3pta/g) played 42 total mins and both are expected tonight there is the potential for an even harder shift.  This isn’t a slam dunk because Osman (#3 in total attempts, #1 in per 100) is doubtful and Valentine (#2 per 100) is a major candidate to drop out of the rotation with Markkanen returning.  


This is of particular importance because Brooklyn defensively is relying heavily on 3pt% against so far this season.  They are 3rd in 3pt% against without denying corner 3s at a notable rate and in the range of poor to average for almost everything else (24th in TOs forced, 19th in Dreb%, 13th in FT/FGA, #14 in 3pa/g against).  


In fact because BRK is the #1 team in 3pt% on offense their difference between 3pters made vs 3pters made against them is worth 6.9 points per 100 (ignoring orebs which would bring this down notably) which is well over their nete rating of +3.8 so far.  That they are #1 in 3pt% isn’t particularly surprising with Mills, Harris and Durant on the team, though Harris is out for tonight.  


This is a roundabout way of saying in their last meeting the Nets managed to outscore the Cavs from 3 by 3 points while taking 9 fewer attempts.  With Brooklyn’s older front court (LMA/Millsap/Johnson/Griffen having an average age of close to 35) and the Cavs having two high volume 3pta bigs in Love and Lauri generating 3pt looks should not be an issue, but they are going to have to actually make them tonight to swing a W.  This goes for our guards as well with Garland and Rubio averaging 9.67 and 6.85 per game in those that Sexton has missed.  


This is the most rested the Cavs have been this season, and the healthiest they have been in two weeks.  They should be able to maintain their defensive intensity which has been their calling card so far this season, and they simply need solid 3pt shooting to be in this game the whole way on top of that.


*Not a perfect split as their first game without Collin they took 31 3ptas.

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