Preliminary lineups

What do the Cavs look like next year with no other moves?

Guards:


Garland, Sexton, Rubio, Okoro, Windler, Dotson.  


SexLand combined for ~66 mpg when the team was healthy, maybe even a bit less.  Sexton had some high min stretches (37+) when the team was thin but the Cavs haven’t made it a priority to max their mins (nor should they).  Rubio was in a similar situation last season between Russell and Edwards as the 3rd guard and averaged 26 a game, that probably was more like 24 when Russell was healthy.  I assume that 3 guard lineups are going to make it onto the floor as well, but that is always hard to ball-park.  It looks like Minny was using them about 6 mpg when they had all three.  That basically leaves 12 mpg at the guard spot when all three are healthy and if they miss a total of 30 games between them at 30 mpg that is ~ 11mpg over the season.  


Okroro was playing the 2 ~12 mpg as it was last year but with lots of guard injuries, maybe make it 8 and there are scraps left over for Windler and Dotson with Dotson being last on the list.  


SF:


Okoro, Cedi, Windler, Stevens, Wade, Markkanen


I expect Okoro to start, at least early.  Okoro getting 22 plus 3-5 mpg from 3 guard lineups only leaves ~ 24-28 mpg depending on missed games, which is really not much considering how this is the Cavs thinnest position.  Assuming that Cedi’s shooting bounces back to the 35-38% range from 3 he seems like the safe bet, but he is a known quantity and Windler is a guy this front office liked and is 1.5 years younger and not a known commodity yet.  Its been fairly obvious that Cedi’s best role is as an off ball shooter and your 3rd best defender, he makes sense in bench lineups with Rubio and one of Allen/Mobley at C.  With the way everything looks he should be available for trade the entire season, which might give him mins over Windler just as a ‘showcase’ season.  Long story short it looks like slim pickings for Stevens and Wade here.


PF/C:


Markkanen, Allen, Mobley, Love, Stevens, Wade


Obviously Tacko Fall takes 47 mins a game at C, but I can’t plug that in until his contract is guaranteed so I will just pretend he won’t for the purposes of this exercise.  


I assume Markkanen and Allen start over Mobley, the Cavs want to win some games this year and they can’t be oblivious to the fact that having a rookie lead the team in mins 2 of the past three seasons (and 3rd the other year) has been a part of their low win totals.  With LM and JA being great compliments offensively in theory at least and having two PGs on the roster it seems like this is the time to put them out there together.  I guess the one conflicting point is that LM is a scorer and you might want to split up Sexton/Lauri as much as you can and use Lauri in Rubio heavy mins.  Unless Mobley really blows the Cavs brass away in preseason it seems like he should be the first player off the bench but its not a given.


That leaves Love, obviously a buyout or trade could still happen but it looks like the Cavs are eating another year of his deal this season (which I approve of).  However if he is healthy he can still shoot and rebound.  In terms of a pairing you could basically run LM+JA together for 28 mpg and then pair Love+Mobley for 20 mpg (with some crossing over of course).  Love’s rebounding and general not quickness would make him a functional backup C while he can space for Mobley on the other end of the floor.  Mobley can defend the perimeter, and be a help shot blocker, and then be a role man and even work his face up game with the spacing Love provides.  


That is kind of it, three guards, four bigs, and Okoro plus one more SF is a 9 man rotation.  When everyone is healthy there aren’t mins left despite having development projects in Windler, Wade and Stevens on the roster.  Not noted though is


  1.  The potential for LM to play wing mins

  2. How you fill the wing in mins LM+Mobley play together.  Those seem like Stevens mins with his size+strength covering for weaknesses.  

  3.  What do you do with Wade?  The Cavs clearly liked him last year and gave him extended run and had good defensive ratings with him on the floor.  


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