Cavs offense and hoped for improvement

 What did the Cavs do poorly last season?  Well pretty close to everything, which is why they stunk on offense and defense and why they project to be bad this year.  Where might they improve due to their youth and new acquisitions?  Well that narrows it down a little.


Major problem number 1:  Finishing.  The Cavs were 29th in eFG% last season, thanks to being 30th in 3pt% and 26th in 2pt%.  They were also 28th in 3ptapg so even if they pushed up their 3pt% that wouldn’t have an outsized impact alone.  On 2pt shots they were poor at finishing at the rim and generating transition buckets.  


Potential fixes here:


A:  Lauri Markkanen replacing Larry Nance:  Nance was a poor finisher last season, a departure from what was a strength in previous years.  The point forward position he was pressed into led to more shots away from the rim (career low 38% of his shots there) and a career high TO rate.  His PSA* was 1.10, a sub 30th percentile outcome for big men.  Markannen had a career best season last year at 1.25, a 70th percentile outcome while having a far lower TO rate in his role as a play finisher rather than a play initiator.  Those numbers are a big improvement if they hold, but last year was Markkanen’s best season by a good amount and his 2nd best season was 1.11 PSA.  


I think part of this improvement should be sustainable for LM.  The Cavs have one of the best passing PGs in the league as their 3rd guard now in Rubio and Garland was roughly average as a passing PG last season.  Combined with acceptable passing from Sexton plus his high usage the set ups for LM to get high value looks off.  His rim finishing has been at 63-65% for 3 of his four seasons with a low of 60% in his highest usage/highest on ball shot creation season.  His free throw rate increased in years 2 and 3 and was holding steady adjusting for his increased 3ptar before Vuce joined the Bulls and shifted his role.  HIs 40% from 3 mark is less likely to be repeated, though he did shoot 42% in college and has a career 84.5% FT%, so it isn’t a wild outlier.  With a career 36.6% mark from 3, strong FT% and potentially better looks from his guards I would expect him to shoot ~38% from 3 for the season.  A dip, but still good enough to improve upon Nance’s finishing from last season.


B:  Jarrett Allen for a full season.  This is a smaller upgrade since we got 51 games and 1,500 mins out of Allen last year but he finishes at a very high rate with good offensive rebounding numbers.  Another 500-800 mins from Allen displacing Drummond’s finishing will help fill part of that gap.


Major issue number 2:  Lack of transition offense.  The Cavs were bottom of the league in generating transition buckets.  Given that the Cavs are young, pretty athletic with quick guards this is disappointing.  This is an area where they could pick up a couple of near free points from pushing and finishing in transition.


Potential fixes here.

A:  Ricky Rubio.  His high steal rate, solid rebounding rate and excellent passing have made him a plus in transition for a guard every season except his rookie year, and he has been 70th, 59th and 58th** percentile over the past three seasons across three teams.  Since he should be displacing Dotson, Osman and borderline NBA player mins (Exum, Delly etc) this could be a solid boost.  Markkanen’s team stats have been a bit better than Nance’s over the past three seasons so that might help as well though I am suspicious here because of losing Nance’s high steal rate should decrease the frequency.  


B.  Evan Mobley.  Mobley could improve the Cavs on both ends of transition offense here.  Shot blocking often leads to scrambles which can lead to chaos and offensive players going after the ball and suddenly needing to be defensive players with their momentum carrying them the wrong way.  Mobley also has the athleticism and passing (potential) to initiate off rebounds or steals which are areas that Drummond and Allen lack, and Nance wasn’t overly adept at the quick rebound and outlet pass and his was more a methodical passing ability, surveying the floor and not generating mismatches on the move.  


Major issue number 3 (how many major issues did the Cavs have?  Lots):  Turnovers.  2nd last in the league fumbling the ball around 2.1 more times per 100 possessions than the average team.  Getting up to average would net them an expected 2.2 points on offense and around a half a point on defense by reducing transition opportunities.  The gap between a fringe playoff team (15-17th) in net rating last year and the 23rd best mark was 1.9 points.  This is not the type of improvement that would vault the Cavs from the bottom of the league to top 20, but is the type of improvement that could vault them from the low 20s to fringe playoff team if they got to that former level in other ways.  


Potential fixes:


  1. The best team impact players (500+ mins) for the Cavs last year were Love and Prince, who primarily played off ball shooting roles at the PF spot.  That puts LM in good position to potentially open up some driving lanes and allow for easier situations for the guards to work in.  You could also interpret this as the Cavs being better when they had veterans available and worse when they didn’t, I would guess a combination of both.  

  2. Rubio displacing Cedi/Nance as the 3rd ball handler/offensive initiator.  Ruibo will turn it over in the course of generating his tremendous assists (visually and in total number) but Cedi was completely out of his depth and Nance only functional as point forwards.  


Overall the Cavs have the opportunity to push their offensive production from bottom of the barrell to perhaps the low 20s without asking for large improvements from Garland, Sexton and Okoro.  This is mostly due to swapping in LM for the injured rotation at PF and having Rubio to allow players to return to more natural supporting roles.  The Cavs will again be fragile to injury and aren’t going to hit high levels of offensive output without a young guy taking a leap but they can get to the low end of respectable and that is something.  



*points scored per shot attempted including free throws.


**His teams performance with him on the court rather than off in transition


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