Surprise Markkanen move

 The Cavs landed Lauri Markkannen- the twitter (ie possibly incorrect) details are

4 years 64 million in a Sign and Trade.  The Cavs are sending Larry Nance Jr to the Blazers and a 2nd round pick to the Bulls.

Unpacking this a little, the really simple stuff:

Markannen is 24

Jarrett Allen is 23

Sexton is 22

Garland is 21

Okoro is 20

Mobley is 19

Unless someone takes the QO or there is a PO in Lauri’s deal the Cavs have full control over this group of players for the next 4 years.  Only Kevin Love is older than 27 on this roster now, and Cedi is the 2nd oldest expected rotation player at 26.

The most important thing for rebuilding teams is to get young players, with potential, under contract at a reasonable rate.  On that metric this trade succeeds, especially considering they didn’t have to send out a first rounder to consummate it.  

That doesn’t automatically make it a good deal though, because Nance does have value and making this swap when a better deal could be had is a negative.  Nothing actually comes to mind though, trading Nance for future firsts isn’t notably better than this deal and there aren’t obvious better players available.  Tentatively this move passes the conceptual test.  On to evaluating Lauri.

What does he do?  Obviously he shoots well for his position, top quintile for volume 3s, above average for % with his best year (last year) 87th percentile for %.  He’s well below average for a big at taking and finishing shots at the rim but his high volume from 3 actually means that he has taken 84% of his shots from either 3 or at the rim over the past two seasons.  He also has a solid turnover rate, and between those skills he has the look of a positive off ball player for his position.  Finally he is an average defensive rebounder for a PF/C who spends the majority of his time at the 4.  

What doesn’t he do?  Any thing else?  That is kind of the answer, he doesn’t pass, oreb, block shots or get steals.  He has no obvious skill that adds value as a defender.  However his defensive metrics have been passable to even solid depending on which ones you take.  

What is his fit?  Obviously as a spacer for a roll man on offense, given both his skill set and what the Cavs have on their roster.  Some of his numbers are very encouraging- three seasons ago on a Bulls team that won 22 games and had a net rating of -8.8 he was almost a neutral player when paired with Robin Lopez at C (-0.5) and the trio of Lavine/Lopez/Lauri was +2.7.  The past two seasons when he had Carter Jr next to him their defensive rating was well above average (84th and 86th percentiles), on teams that were a bit above average defensively as a whole.  Offensively those lineups struggled on a team that struggled as a whole.  

Does he have significant upside left?  

The trickiest question.  His first two years in the league actually looked like he might have offensive all-star upside especially after his 2nd season.  Was it injuries and team flux preventing him from improving further or was he near his ceiling already at 21 and is just a rotation player?  I lean strongly to the latter, but he had increased his FTr two straight seasons, continued to improve his shot selection, improved his overall shooting from 2 since his rookie year by a good amount.  His length allows him to get his shot off from anywhere he wants so he doesn’t have a low usage cap like some off ball players do.  

This trade is very fresh so I am reserving a hard judgement.  In general I like the age/cost portion.  I like the fit next to Allen, and longer term Mobley if it works that way, and in the near term Garland and Rubio with Allen and Markkannen could make for some dynamic offensive sets.  

EDIT: I forgot about Ricky Rubio as being over 26.