Preview vs the Minnesota Timberwolves

 The Cavs are what the Timberwolves hoped to be, a talented but young core being supplemented with a veteran or two who could grow into a perennial playoff team.  Karl-Anthony Towns turned 26 years old last month and is the oldest player in their top 7 in terms of minutes played, and within that group they have three players who have not yet hit their 23rd birthday.  If they could turn this group of talent into a functional team they would have a long stretch to figure out how to turn that team into a contender.  This is not that team.

For every good thing this group does there is something they do terribly on the other end.  3rd in offensive rebound rate for the season and this understates how good they have been since Vanderbilt’s role increased.  With KAT and JV on the court their oreb% is in the 100th percentile, the absolute top of the NBA with a 38.2% rate.  Ok, now I will give you one guess as to which team is dead last in the NBA at defensive rebound rate, go ahead take your time.  Not only are the Wolves dead last but they are bad with those same two bigs out there, coming in at the 8th percentile with a 29.8% Dreb rate.  

The Wolves are also number 1 in forcing TOs with a 15% rate and 17.2 per 100.  This is going to be an area of concern in this game as the Cavs are the 2nd worst team in the league turning it over 16.3 times per 100.  When they are not able to jump lanes, or pressure players into bad passes they have a habit of fouling, and not even smart fouls on the floor.  4th worst in the league in fouls per 100 they are dead last in free throw attempts given up and a full 1.6 more per 100 than the #2 team which is a larger gap than between the #2 and #15 teams here.  

They are absolutely capable of putting it together for a single night and blowing a team out, and they are also capable of dragging their sorry butts around against Orlando and losing by 18 after giving up a 43 point 4th quarter.  

So what is in store tonight for the Cavs?  Who knows?  Their preferred starting 5 has played only 175 possessions together this season (The Cavs with all their missed time managed to squeeze out 140 possessions of their starting lineup before Sexton’s season ender and have 200 possessions with their current starting lineup), and they are +50(!!!!) per 100 with that group.  LIneup of death, destruction and mayhem anyone?  This team has looked great with five straight double digit wins against SAC, SAS, MEM, NOP and Miami with these 5 starting and a 3 pt loss to Phoenix just before that streak.  

This dichotomy shows in their win/loss splits, with their average win coming by 14.6 points and their average loss by 13.2.  This is a very different team from the Cavs who have managed to squeeze decent production from a wide range of lineups and have committed to solid play no matter who sits.  Their best lineups include the Garland/Rubio pairing who are coming in at +13/100 in 770 possessions so far, and those two with Allen are clocking in at nearly +20 in 370 possessions.  The Cavs have stayed competitive in nearly every game and their single largest loss so far is by 15, while the Timberwolves have 5 losses from 18 to 32 points.  On the other side the Wolves largest win is by 43 against the Cavs 26.  

It is hard to even characterize the Wolves’ wins, they have beaten up on SAC, NOP, HOU and SAS but they have also wong by 43 against Memphis who are currently 15-11, 12 against a healthy Miami squad and a 7 point win against Milwaukee down Jrue Holiday.  

Head to Head there is some bad juju for the Cavs in this matchup.  The Lauri/Mobley/Allen trio has excellent defensive numbers together in every category except defensive rebounding and offensively they are turning the ball over far too much, and these two weaknesses line up perfectly with Minnesota’s strengths.  

Defensively the Cavs, once again, have fairly important decisions to make.  Edwards is a hyper athletic bowling ball at times and is starting at SF for them, putting Lauri across from him positionally.  Will they try length on him or hope for Okoro’s athleticism to match and slow him down.  Help rotations are dangerous with Vanderbilt and Towns on the offensive glass.  The easiest way to contain him thus far has been to encourage his step back game as Edwards takes far too many 3s at a passable rate, at 11.3 per 100 and 34.7%, but they displace his power drives to the rim which, along with transition, are his dangerous attempts.  Doing this will invite some variance as Edwards is capable of getting hot (4 games with 15+ points coming on 3s alone) and you might have to shift the defense back to being aggressive on him on the perimeter.  

KAT worries me less, which is funny because he is by far the more dangerous offensive player right now.  However the Cavs have a tandem of bigs who can alternate with Mobley being the primary when KAT is playing the perimeter and Allen the primary when Towns tries to work inside.  As long as the Cleveland can defend Towns 1v1 at a reasonable rate they shouldn’t have to run the help constantly which opens up weakside rebounds, which is where Minnesota can ruin all the defensive effort that went on up until the shot went off.

Offensively the Cavs still lack a defining strength when Garland and Rubio aren’t on the floor together.  Their offensive rebounding comes and goes and while they are top 10 in oreb% and have games where it helps them dominate (Washington) or maintain (Utah, BRK, GSW) they also have games where it strangely disappears (Chicago).  There are some signs that their modest offensive output is related to the rotation issues due to missed time though.  If we use Dean Wade’s mins as a proxy for those thin lineups, then dropping him from the rotation gives the Cavs a 113.1 ortg with Garland in and Rubio/Sexton out (358) possessions, though it doesn’t do anything for the poor ortg with Rubio in and Garland out.  

On the maybe nothing maybe something front:  Jarrett Allen’s assist rate is up a hair this season at 9.4% vs 8.0% for his career and 8.9% for his second best season.  This is 0.3 and 0.0 per 100 better (not a typo) respectively.  That isn’t much, but within season he had 1.4 apg in his first 10 games and 4 games with zero assists, in the 13 games since he has averaged 2.2 per game and has only one game without registering a dime.  If it holds that would be a nice little addition to his game.